Engadget got their hands on a Tivo Series 3 HD unit and drew the expected conclusions: some neat features, but a bit pricey. The second is especially true compared to what the cable monopolies are offering, making me wonder about Tivo’s future.
The Series 3 has two high-definition tuners, two cable-card slots, an external hard drive connector, and the usual slick interface software. The price tag is a cool $800, plus monthly service fees now that lifetime service is no longer an option. (Though you can apparently transfer an old lifetime subscription for $200.) And that’s the rub for the average TV watcher: when $10 a month gets you a cable company DVR, why pay that plus $800 for Tivo hardware?
That dilema leads me to speculate two possible futures for Tivo:
- Own the high-end DVR niche. Similar to Apple’s computers, they already offer a combination of well-designed and integrated hardware and software for those willing to pay a premium. Though a smaller market, there’s still enough money in it to be profitable.
- DVR software provider. Like Microsoft, they could realize that hardware is now a commodity and the real money - and their real advantage - is in software. They already seem to be moving in this direction, having lost their hardware deal with DirecTV and inked software deals for Comcast and Cox cable boxes.
